The Big Bet: Prediction Markets and the Future of Democracy

What happens when democracy becomes another commodity? The first book on prediction markets - and how they are re-shaping the world.

For many, Donald Trump’s decisive election victory over Kamala Harris in 2024 was a shock. Traditional polls had the race too close to call. But for those watching prediction betting markets, a very different story was being told.

In recent years, prediction markets have swept the world, fundamentally changing the nature of gambling and making their youthful pioneers billionaires. Posed as binary ‘Yes/No’ questions about future events, prediction bets allow any difference of opinion – whether on politics, wars, assassinations, or popular culture – to be financialised.

But are these markets really a new phenomenon? What does it mean when those tasked with safeguarding democracy hold financial stakes in its volatility?

From Renaissance Rome, where merchants wagered on papal conclaves, through wartime London’s coffee house gossip, to the Pentagon's ill-fated terrorism futures exchange, The Big Bet describes the full five-hundred-year arc of a permissive regime that no one designed and no one voted for.

Drawing on deep expertise, Michael Auerbach examines how these markets are changing our world, and what they mean for the future of our democratic self-governance. Because they are not an anomaly — they are the logical endpoint of a society that has applied market capitalism to every aspect of life. And in a world where everything is a wager and nothing is off limits, knowing where the chips will fall matters more than ever.

© Michael Auerbach 2027 (P) Penguin Audio 2027